There’s a lot of exciting stuff coming up this year. Even more so since it’s an Olympic year. While it’s always a good idea to live in the present, it’s fun sometimes to think about the future. What goodness and challenges will unfold?
The popularity of running is waning. I predict we’re going to see LESS people running. At least distance running. Face it trees don’t grow up to the sky. It had to happen sooner or later. How do I know? The March Madness Half Marathon, here in Cary Illinois, is my barometer. The first time I ran it in 2007 (it was my first half) registration stayed open for weeks, maybe even months before it sold out. Over the past 10 years, it grew more and more popular, selling out faster and faster. At it’s crest it sold out (break-the-internet style) in under 15 minutes. Since then it’s been taking progressively longer to sell out. This year (online registration opens at 6am every New Year’s Eve) registration was open a good 90 minutes before it sold out.
But March Madness is a serious “runners’ race”. How about races that attract the fun-loving types? Declining as well. Just a few years ago, Run Disney races used to sell out in a matter of days. Currently the only Disney race series that still sells out during general registration is the Princess Half Marathon Weekend.
I predict the Boston Qualifying Standard will be tightened. Maybe running is waning but the Boston situation is still a little ridiculous. Qualifying then not being able to run is mucho no bueno. I highly doubt they can increase the field or add additional waves so there’s only one thing left to do. Yep ,tighten it up. In 1989 women age 40-50 needed a 3:40 to BQ. In 1986 they needed a 3:30. Now a 3:45 is a BQ but you need to be over 3 minutes faster than that to actually run the race. In 1970 the BQ time for men was 4 hours across the board. A year later they tightened it to 3:30. In 1980 40+ men needed a 3:10 while those younger needed 2:50. My point is it’s all arbitrary and changes a lot over time. I predict the standards will change again, sooner than later.
I predict I will have a blast at Gasparilla in February. Even though most likely my running will suck. Maybe I should just train to speed walk.
I see a World Marathon Major (or 2) in my future. Ok I’m being optimistic here. While (barring a miracle) there will be no World Marathon Majors for me this year, I’m keeping fingers and toes crossed that I can get entry into either London or Tokyo for 2019.
I do not see a World Marathon Challenge in my future. But I predict my friend, and Boston Race Director Dave McGillivray will achieve his World Marathon Challenge goal of 7 marathons on 7 continents in 7 days. He sets off in just 2 weeks and is raising money for the Richard Martin (died tragically in the Boston 2013 bombings) Foundation. Go here to donate.
Your turn: What running predictions will you make? What fun running stuff lies in your future? Did you enter my giveaway?
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What a fun post! I wonder if I am part of the waning long distance crowd? I just don’t have the desire to run longer distances but then again once the weather changes so will my mind!
It’s crazy how they keep tightening up the times for Boston. My sister BQ-ed several times last year but still was not able to make it in. I think her last BQ In November was enough to get her in for 2019!
Oooh London or Tokyo would be so so cool!!!!
I predict that this year I won’t get in as many miles- but I’ll still be running!
Very interesting! I agree with you about Boston, something will have to be done. I hope you get into one of those marathons for 2019!
I had no idea about the Disney Races–you’d never know that fewer people were signing up, based on all the hullaballoo on social media! Really interesting post.
Or maybe it’s just the fact that this winter is so cold? Well, you know a lot more about the racing scene than I do!
I am sure Dave will do it. He’s so inspirational! It is true our Last Run, which usually sells out, didn’t. In fact, they ended up even adding extra spots (although it was still pretty well attended).
I predict I will run less than 4 halfs this year. Pretty darn sure that’s going to happen! Even if I’d like to add more than 1 state, which at present time is all I’m signed up (one half this year is a repeat state).
The larger races around here still seem to sell out quicker. Do you think more less people are signing up or there are more races to choose from? I have noticed the last few years how many more tri races there are in our area so they are less hard to get into.
I still do short distances, but since my ITBS, I haven’t had the desire to do a half marathon again. I’m compromising with what I can do, and it’s still keeping me active.
Interesting thoughts about running waning…. I don’t know how much that March Madness race costs but I know that Disney is pretty expensive. Maybe it’s more a financial thing than a running thing? #thingsthatmakeyougohmmmm
I completely agree about Boston. They definitely need to do something. I couldn’t imagine qualifying for the first time and not being able to get in and run. That would be pretty soul crushing!
Crossing all fingers and toes for that Major in 2019 for you! (and maybe a miracle for this year. :))
I kept getting tons of emails asking my predictions from other sites and finally I was like ok…underwear runs!
I totally agree about the popularity of running. The same thing has happened with runDisney races… all of the sudden the races were selling out in MINUTES – and now, races stay open for months! The shorter distances still go pretty quickly (usually the 10K first!) but those longer races just aren’t as popular!
I hope they don’t make the BQ standards any tighter – I need almost an hour faster than what I run currently LOL
Interesting about running’s popularity waning. I feel like the popular races around here are still selling out fairly quickly. I wonder what the “hot” new sport/fitness activity will be?
I just wonder if some of these races are not selling out as fast is that they’re becoming so darn expensive.
I guess everything has a peak right?! I had no idea Disney wasn’t selling out as fast, but it is insanely expensive…maybe that will nudge the price down. At this point I predict I will never go back lol but never say never.
I think Gasparilla should be all about fun anyway 🙂 Some events are better if you go into it with out expectations.
I hope your prediction for London or Tokyo comes true. That would be so awesome for you! I see massages in my fitness future 😉
This post was an awesome read! Excellent predictions, Marcia. I couldn’t agree more agree about the popularity of running!
I did not see my name in that list of 2018 thingies….*ahem*
I can’t commit to even a 5k at this sucky point in my life (though I have one this weekend – haha. In that long lost snow storm that is going to finally come to Colorado. Oh goodie).
But I do hope we see one another and have an adventure of some sorts. Don’t let Tara talk you into any triathlons out here though….
xo
Great predictions for the year! That’s really interesting about the race registrations waning. I had no idea! I’m a little torn on how I feel about it.
What do you predict for those boutique treadmill workout classes? It sounds so silly but I totally want to try one. I mean, indoor cycling sounds silly and I love that anyway.